Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
