Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
